Since its establishment in 2012, Trinity Energy has grown into South Sudan’s largest independent energy business. The company is the first local entity to be registered to lift crude oil from South Sudan and has become one of the pillars of the country’s energy security. Its trading arm currently exports South Sudanese oil before re-importing finished petroleum products into the market. In March 2022, Hawilti spoke with Founder & Chairman Akol Ayii about South Sudan’s recovery prospects and Trinity Energy’s expansion plans.
How do you assess South Sudan’s recovery prospects in 2022?
The past two years have been challenging due to the headwinds presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides the shutdowns in South Sudan as a market, there were also significant logistical challenges in importing petroleum products due to border shutdowns during the pandemic. This is because the majority of our refined products’ supplies are from the surrounding East African markets.
Needless to say, Covid-19 has impacted the demand for petroleum products in South Sudan, and altered the timeline of key projects within the energy sector, including that of our own refinery.
That said, the historic recovery of crude oil prices is now providing a boost to the country’s economy because oil revenues account for about 30% of the government’s budget. We expect a trickle-down effects across other sectors throughout 2022 and 2023.
In the year 2020/21, the Government hadalso made strategic investments in thebuilding or roads and highways. We arenow starting to see the positive impact ofsuch infrastructure spending across theeconomy.
Meanwhile, we remain optimistic that as a result of the peace agreement and the implementation of the Government ofNational Unity, the business environment in South Sudan will continue to improve.In 2021, the IMF estimated South Sudan’s real GDP growth at +4.5%, with the forecast for this year revised upward to+6.5%. This maintains the country as one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies.
As the economy recovers, where do you see most investment opportunities in the oil & gas sector?
Oil revenues represent on average 25-30%of South Sudan’s budget so the sector iscritical to the wellbeing of the economy.The government has maintained itsambition to restore crude oil productionto pre-conflict levels of 350,000 barrels ofoil per day (bopd), which wouldsignificantly boost economic growth.
The energy security policy of the countryis two-folded: on one hand enhanceexploration activities and bring more oilwells into production, and on the otherset up South Sudan’s own petroleumrefinery.
As part of efforts to boost upstream activity, the country’s first licensing round since independence was launched in 2021. It is anticipated to be an economic accelerator spurring investments by international oil investors and service companies into the country’s emerging oil and gas sector.
In that context, what updates do you have on Trinity Energy’s expansion plans?
Trinity Energy has already invested closeto $13m in the roll-out of its current retailnetwork of 20 fuel stations in SouthSudan. Our focus has been and remains onconstructing and acquiring an additional100 outlets in the country within the next4 years. We plan for 40 of these stations tobe in Juba, while the other 60 stations willbe spread in all the 10 states across SouthSudan.
As a key proponent of the Intra-Africa trade, we are also actively pursuing growth opportunities in East, Central, andSouth Africa. We already have a presence in Kenya and recently entered theDemocratic Republic of Congo. Moving forward, we are developing opportunities in Malawi, Somaliland, and Uganda and are launching four new fuel retail stations in Nairobi in the first quarter of 2022.
Another significant component of ouractivities is aimed at expanding ourstorage facilities in South Sudan. Wecurrently own 6 million litres of fuelstorage at our depot in Nesitu, with anadditional 2 million litres of storage underdevelopment. To further support ourgrowth strategy, we will be constructingan additional 50 million litres of storagecapacity in Koda, just outside Juba. Wehave also engaged Nilepet for theconstruction of a storage terminal inBentiu.
We target to leverage these storage facilities to supply petroleum products into neighbouring countries includingEthiopia, the Central African Republic, and the D.R.C.